Top 12 House Race Primaries to Watch
August 2, 2010 12:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | Share This

By Tim Sahd
Tomorrow’s political schedule will be featuring key primaries in Michigan, Missouri and Kansas, with no shortage of House races with significant implications for this year’s midterms. The leading race to watch is Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-MI), who is at serious risk of becoming the fourth House incumbent to lose a primary this cycle (following Alan Mollohan, Bob Inglis and Parker Griffith).

There are several other compelling storylines, however. Republicans could find themselves with another African-American nominee – and likely congressman – if state senator Bill Hardiman wins the crowded GOP primary for the seat of retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI). Hardiman hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention as SC 01 GOP nominee Tim Scott, and is a slight underdog, but bet on him receiving lots of attention if he can prevail with the nomination.

In Michigan’s neighboring Second District, another GOP contender familiar to football fans (at least in Buffalo and Pittsburgh) could be making waves in Washington if he wins Tuesday’s primary. Former NFL tight end Jay Riemersma has led the field in fundraising, and looks like a slight favorite.

And the battle for Bart Stupak’s House seat is in full swing on the Republican side, with a Tea Party favorite Dan Benishek up against the establishment pick, state senator Jason Allen. Tea Partiers are also engaged in the seat to succeed retiring Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), where outsider Billy Long is the favorite of the activist crowd.

Below are the top 12 House primaries you should be following, ranked in order of most to least compelling, at least if you’re as big political junkies as we are!

1. MI-13 (Kilpatrick)

Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D), meanwhile, is in real trouble. Two recent polls — one conducted for state Sen. Hansen Clarke (D) and one non-partisan survey — show Clark with a lead, and with Kilpatrick in the very low-30s. Kilpatrick won her last race by collecting just 39%, and is in real danger against a semi-well funded Clarke. Kilpatrick has been attacked for her relationship to her imprisoned son/ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, and has also been criticized for not bringing home the pork to the financially hurting CD. The perfect storm may be gathering to oust Kilpatrick.

2. MI-07 (Schauer)

This is a classic swing CD, so Rep. Mark Schauer (D) should be in danger in a year the GOP is enjoying a renaissance. But first the GOP has to get past a rather contentious primary. Rep. Tim Walberg (R) and atty/Rep. Rooney brother Brian Rooney (R) largely agree on the issues, but there have been skirmishes. Walberg attacked Rooney for failing to show up at a pro-life dinner, while Rooney hit Walberg for being supported by the pro-choice ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R). Some GOPers believe Rooney would be the better candidate against Schauer, as he’d provide a fresh slate against the Dem. In this type of enviro, either could give Schauer a race, but Rooney’s support among a coalition of moderate and conservative GOPers may give him the best shot.

3. MI-01 (OPEN/Stupak)

After the back-and-forth over abortion and health care made Rep. Bart Stupak (D) famous — or infamous in some quarters — he retired, leaving this swing CD open to a GOP pickup. State Rep. Gary McDowell (D) is unopposed on the Dem side, while GOPers will choose between a likely top-tier of challengers including physician Dan Benishek (R) and state Sen. Jason Allen (R). Benishek, who entered the race before Stupak retired, benefitted financially from the health care debate, and has raised over $440K. Allen, though, has kept pace with Benishek since he’s been in the race, though, and should benefit from name ID in some parts of the sprawling CD. In TV ads, Benishek has been running as an outsider, while attacking Allen for taking contributions from the SEIU. Because of the marginal nature of the CD, either GOP nominee will give McDowell a very tough race.

4. MI 03 (OPEN/Ehlers)

A trio of top-tier GOPers are contending for Rep. Vern Ehlers’ (R) open seat. And the frontrunners — state Rep. Justin Amash (R), state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R) and ex-Kent Co. Commis. Steve Heacock (R) — each have their own advantages in the race. Amash has personal cash, Tea Party support and connections to wealthy contributors (the DeVos family, for instance); Hardiman has strong name ID, if not a strong fundraising base; and Heacock has the support of Ehlers. A new Grand Rapids Press poll gave Amash a five-point lead over Hardiman, and Amash may be able to hold him off with his fundraising advantage. If Hardiman wins, meanwhile, it’d give GOPers a second African-American GOP nominee with a great chance at picking up a seat this cycle (the other is SC-01’s Tim Scott). Dems also feature a primary, but the GOP race will likely produce the winner of this seat.

5. KS-03 (OPEN/Moore)

When Rep. Dennis Moore (D) announced his retirement, GOPers licked their chops in this GOP-leaning, Kansas City-based CD. The party has a great shot at picking up the seat, but first it has to get past a typical KS conservative/moderate primary between state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) and ex-state Rep. Patricia Lightner (R). Some GOPers point to Yoder’s early career, when he was more of a social moderate, as a disqualifier. But he has picked up the endorsement of several conservative state legislators, while Lightner has won the endorsement of pro-life orgs. Yoder is the clear fundraising frontrunner, holding a $800K to $125K fundraising lead over Lightner, while none of the other eight GOPers has put together more than $85K. If Yoder doesn’t win, it’d be a huge upset. He will be the big early favorite against Moore wife/nurse Stephene Moore (D) in the general.

6 MI 02 (Hoekstra)

Rep. Pete Hoekstra’s (R) running for GOV, and a host of conservative GOPers are running to replace him in the Western MI CD. The top-tier of GOP candidates include state state Sen. Wayne Kuipers (R), ex-state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) businessman Bill Cooper (R) and ex-NFL/Univ. of MI tight end Jay Riemersma (R). Riemersma — a social conservative who worked for the Family Research Council — has far-and-away outraised the crowd, and has also put in over $200K of his own cash in the race. That has led to charges from his challengers that he’s attempting to buy the race. But a new poll gives him the lead. Still, whichever GOPer emerges from the primary will be the strong favorite to win the seat in the fall.

7. MO-04 (Skelton)

GOPers believe Rep. Ike Skelton (D) is vulnerable, and think highly of both ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) and state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R), who are in the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. Until recently this has been a rather sleepy contest, but Stouffer has just begun airing an ad accusing Hartzler of voting to raise taxes while she was in the legislature. Hartzler shot back that Stouffer sponsored a $7B “job-killing sales tax increase.”

Skelton will enjoy a big cash advantage in the general. Either GOPer will have around $200K after the primary, while the incumbent’s sitting on $1.3M. Skelton knows he’s in trouble, though, as he’s already begun airing TV ads.

8. MI-09 (Peters)

Eagle Forum’s Phyllis Schlafly, of all people, has factored into the campaign’s final days. At a fundraiser for ‘02 SEN nominee/ex-state Rep. Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski (R), she said unmarried women — who were big supporters of Pres. Obama in ‘08 — voted for Obama “because when you kick your husband out, you’ve got to have big brother government to be your provider.” Raczkowski has condemned the remark, but it may have given a boost in this suburban, socially moderate CD to ex-Rep. Knollenberg CoS Paul Welday (R). Whoever emerges from the primary will face a tough, but not impossible, race against freshman Rep. Gary Peters (D), who’s got nearly $2M in the bank. Neither GOPer has more than $250K.

9. MO-07 (OPEN/Blunt)

The race to replace SEN candidate Roy Blunt (R) is extremely cluttered. Auctioneer Billy Long (R) is the outsider in the contest, and has definitely embraced that role. He’s not exactly polished, but his homespun manner is a clear contrast to state Sens. Gary Nodler (R) and Jack Goodman (R). On the issues, Long has attacked Nodler and Goodman for voting for tax credits for a St. Louis developer. Meanwhile on social issues there doesn’t appear to be a huge difference, as all three groups tout the backing of pro-life orgs. But Long has won the endorsement of ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and ex-Treas. Sarah Steelman, and has the most cash left in the bank for the final few weeks. The winner will be a near shoo-in for the general.

10. MI-12 (D/Levin)

Is new Ways and Means Chair Sander Levin (D) worried about his primary? He’s certainly acting like it. He has spent $1.1M in the contest against state Sen. Mike Switalski (D), compared to Switalski’s $32K. Levin also had Bill Clinton (D) in for a fundraiser last weekend, despite the fact he still had over $665K in the bank. In March, Levin released a poll showing him with a nearly 50-point lead; it seems very unlikely that Switalski has been able to make up that ground, but Levin’s not taking this race for granted.

11. KS-04 (OPEN/Tiahrt)

This open seat also leans strongly towards the GOP, but Dems believe they also have an outside shot, should they get their nominee out of the primary. On the GOP side, businessman/RNC Cmteman Mike Pompeo (R) and oil co. owner Wink Hartman (R) were the early frontrunners who have clashed in TV ads constantly, while moderate state Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) is riding a wave of mo’, according to polls. The latest Survey USA poll shows Pompeo leading Schodorf, 31-24%, with Hartman dropping into third place. Pompeo and Hartman’s constant TV attacks — and Schodorf’s pro-choice stand — may give her the opening she needs to pull off the upset. At this point, though, Pompeo appears to be the nominal frontrunner.

State Rep. Raj Goyle (D), meanwhile, has raised an astounding $1.2M, but polling had indicated he had fallen behind retiree Robert Tillman (D) — who has yet to file an FEC report. That has forced Goyle to spend nearly $515K of his warchest, but the latest SurveyUSA poll shows spending that cash was well worth the cost: Goyle now holds a 3-1 lead.

12. KS-01 (OPEN/Moran)

In this 69% McCain CD, all of the action in this open seat contest will take place in the GOP primary. And in a crowded contest featuring several politicians, real-estate agent Tracey Mann (R) is a surprise frontrunner. According to SurveyUSA polling, he started the contest in this sprawling rural CD at the bottom of the pack, but shot up to the head of the class as he began spending some $500K on the contest (including $100K of his own cash). State Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R) and ‘06 GOV nominee/doctor/state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) join Mann at the top of the six-person pack. This contest is a jumble; in the latest poll, all three were tied at 24%. And all three have about $200K for the campaign’s final weeks. It should be a photo finish.
Top 12 House Race Primaries to Watch
August 2, 2010 12:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | Share This

By Tim Sahd
Tomorrow’s political schedule will be featuring key primaries in Michigan, Missouri and Kansas, with no shortage of House races with significant implications for this year’s midterms. The leading race to watch is Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-MI), who is at serious risk of becoming the fourth House incumbent to lose a primary this cycle (following Alan Mollohan, Bob Inglis and Parker Griffith).

There are several other compelling storylines, however. Republicans could find themselves with another African-American nominee – and likely congressman – if state senator Bill Hardiman wins the crowded GOP primary for the seat of retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI). Hardiman hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention as SC 01 GOP nominee Tim Scott, and is a slight underdog, but bet on him receiving lots of attention if he can prevail with the nomination.

In Michigan’s neighboring Second District, another GOP contender familiar to football fans (at least in Buffalo and Pittsburgh) could be making waves in Washington if he wins Tuesday’s primary. Former NFL tight end Jay Riemersma has led the field in fundraising, and looks like a slight favorite.

And the battle for Bart Stupak’s House seat is in full swing on the Republican side, with a Tea Party favorite Dan Benishek up against the establishment pick, state senator Jason Allen. Tea Partiers are also engaged in the seat to succeed retiring Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), where outsider Billy Long is the favorite of the activist crowd.

Below are the top 12 House primaries you should be following, ranked in order of most to least compelling, at least if you’re as big political junkies as we are!

1. MI-13 (Kilpatrick)

Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D), meanwhile, is in real trouble. Two recent polls — one conducted for state Sen. Hansen Clarke (D) and one non-partisan survey — show Clark with a lead, and with Kilpatrick in the very low-30s. Kilpatrick won her last race by collecting just 39%, and is in real danger against a semi-well funded Clarke. Kilpatrick has been attacked for her relationship to her imprisoned son/ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, and has also been criticized for not bringing home the pork to the financially hurting CD. The perfect storm may be gathering to oust Kilpatrick.

2. MI-07 (Schauer)

This is a classic swing CD, so Rep. Mark Schauer (D) should be in danger in a year the GOP is enjoying a renaissance. But first the GOP has to get past a rather contentious primary. Rep. Tim Walberg (R) and atty/Rep. Rooney brother Brian Rooney (R) largely agree on the issues, but there have been skirmishes. Walberg attacked Rooney for failing to show up at a pro-life dinner, while Rooney hit Walberg for being supported by the pro-choice ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R). Some GOPers believe Rooney would be the better candidate against Schauer, as he’d provide a fresh slate against the Dem. In this type of enviro, either could give Schauer a race, but Rooney’s support among a coalition of moderate and conservative GOPers may give him the best shot.

3. MI-01 (OPEN/Stupak)

After the back-and-forth over abortion and health care made Rep. Bart Stupak (D) famous — or infamous in some quarters — he retired, leaving this swing CD open to a GOP pickup. State Rep. Gary McDowell (D) is unopposed on the Dem side, while GOPers will choose between a likely top-tier of challengers including physician Dan Benishek (R) and state Sen. Jason Allen (R). Benishek, who entered the race before Stupak retired, benefitted financially from the health care debate, and has raised over $440K. Allen, though, has kept pace with Benishek since he’s been in the race, though, and should benefit from name ID in some parts of the sprawling CD. In TV ads, Benishek has been running as an outsider, while attacking Allen for taking contributions from the SEIU. Because of the marginal nature of the CD, either GOP nominee will give McDowell a very tough race.

4. MI 03 (OPEN/Ehlers)

A trio of top-tier GOPers are contending for Rep. Vern Ehlers’ (R) open seat. And the frontrunners — state Rep. Justin Amash (R), state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R) and ex-Kent Co. Commis. Steve Heacock (R) — each have their own advantages in the race. Amash has personal cash, Tea Party support and connections to wealthy contributors (the DeVos family, for instance); Hardiman has strong name ID, if not a strong fundraising base; and Heacock has the support of Ehlers. A new Grand Rapids Press poll gave Amash a five-point lead over Hardiman, and Amash may be able to hold him off with his fundraising advantage. If Hardiman wins, meanwhile, it’d give GOPers a second African-American GOP nominee with a great chance at picking up a seat this cycle (the other is SC-01’s Tim Scott). Dems also feature a primary, but the GOP race will likely produce the winner of this seat.

5. KS-03 (OPEN/Moore)

When Rep. Dennis Moore (D) announced his retirement, GOPers licked their chops in this GOP-leaning, Kansas City-based CD. The party has a great shot at picking up the seat, but first it has to get past a typical KS conservative/moderate primary between state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) and ex-state Rep. Patricia Lightner (R). Some GOPers point to Yoder’s early career, when he was more of a social moderate, as a disqualifier. But he has picked up the endorsement of several conservative state legislators, while Lightner has won the endorsement of pro-life orgs. Yoder is the clear fundraising frontrunner, holding a $800K to $125K fundraising lead over Lightner, while none of the other eight GOPers has put together more than $85K. If Yoder doesn’t win, it’d be a huge upset. He will be the big early favorite against Moore wife/nurse Stephene Moore (D) in the general.

6 MI 02 (Hoekstra)

Rep. Pete Hoekstra’s (R) running for GOV, and a host of conservative GOPers are running to replace him in the Western MI CD. The top-tier of GOP candidates include state state Sen. Wayne Kuipers (R), ex-state Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) businessman Bill Cooper (R) and ex-NFL/Univ. of MI tight end Jay Riemersma (R). Riemersma — a social conservative who worked for the Family Research Council — has far-and-away outraised the crowd, and has also put in over $200K of his own cash in the race. That has led to charges from his challengers that he’s attempting to buy the race. But a new poll gives him the lead. Still, whichever GOPer emerges from the primary will be the strong favorite to win the seat in the fall.

7. MO-04 (Skelton)

GOPers believe Rep. Ike Skelton (D) is vulnerable, and think highly of both ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) and state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R), who are in the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. Until recently this has been a rather sleepy contest, but Stouffer has just begun airing an ad accusing Hartzler of voting to raise taxes while she was in the legislature. Hartzler shot back that Stouffer sponsored a $7B “job-killing sales tax increase.”

Skelton will enjoy a big cash advantage in the general. Either GOPer will have around $200K after the primary, while the incumbent’s sitting on $1.3M. Skelton knows he’s in trouble, though, as he’s already begun airing TV ads.

8. MI-09 (Peters)

Eagle Forum’s Phyllis Schlafly, of all people, has factored into the campaign’s final days. At a fundraiser for ‘02 SEN nominee/ex-state Rep. Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski (R), she said unmarried women — who were big supporters of Pres. Obama in ‘08 — voted for Obama “because when you kick your husband out, you’ve got to have big brother government to be your provider.” Raczkowski has condemned the remark, but it may have given a boost in this suburban, socially moderate CD to ex-Rep. Knollenberg CoS Paul Welday (R). Whoever emerges from the primary will face a tough, but not impossible, race against freshman Rep. Gary Peters (D), who’s got nearly $2M in the bank. Neither GOPer has more than $250K.

9. MO-07 (OPEN/Blunt)

The race to replace SEN candidate Roy Blunt (R) is extremely cluttered. Auctioneer Billy Long (R) is the outsider in the contest, and has definitely embraced that role. He’s not exactly polished, but his homespun manner is a clear contrast to state Sens. Gary Nodler (R) and Jack Goodman (R). On the issues, Long has attacked Nodler and Goodman for voting for tax credits for a St. Louis developer. Meanwhile on social issues there doesn’t appear to be a huge difference, as all three groups tout the backing of pro-life orgs. But Long has won the endorsement of ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and ex-Treas. Sarah Steelman, and has the most cash left in the bank for the final few weeks. The winner will be a near shoo-in for the general.

10. MI-12 (D/Levin)

Is new Ways and Means Chair Sander Levin (D) worried about his primary? He’s certainly acting like it. He has spent $1.1M in the contest against state Sen. Mike Switalski (D), compared to Switalski’s $32K. Levin also had Bill Clinton (D) in for a fundraiser last weekend, despite the fact he still had over $665K in the bank. In March, Levin released a poll showing him with a nearly 50-point lead; it seems very unlikely that Switalski has been able to make up that ground, but Levin’s not taking this race for granted.

11. KS-04 (OPEN/Tiahrt)

This open seat also leans strongly towards the GOP, but Dems believe they also have an outside shot, should they get their nominee out of the primary. On the GOP side, businessman/RNC Cmteman Mike Pompeo (R) and oil co. owner Wink Hartman (R) were the early frontrunners who have clashed in TV ads constantly, while moderate state Sen. Jean Schodorf (R) is riding a wave of mo’, according to polls. The latest Survey USA poll shows Pompeo leading Schodorf, 31-24%, with Hartman dropping into third place. Pompeo and Hartman’s constant TV attacks — and Schodorf’s pro-choice stand — may give her the opening she needs to pull off the upset. At this point, though, Pompeo appears to be the nominal frontrunner.

State Rep. Raj Goyle (D), meanwhile, has raised an astounding $1.2M, but polling had indicated he had fallen behind retiree Robert Tillman (D) — who has yet to file an FEC report. That has forced Goyle to spend nearly $515K of his warchest, but the latest SurveyUSA poll shows spending that cash was well worth the cost: Goyle now holds a 3-1 lead.

12. KS-01 (OPEN/Moran)

In this 69% McCain CD, all of the action in this open seat contest will take place in the GOP primary. And in a crowded contest featuring several politicians, real-estate agent Tracey Mann (R) is a surprise frontrunner. According to SurveyUSA polling, he started the contest in this sprawling rural CD at the bottom of the pack, but shot up to the head of the class as he began spending some $500K on the contest (including $100K of his own cash). State Sen. Tim Huelskamp (R) and ‘06 GOV nominee/doctor/state Sen. Jim Barnett (R) join Mann at the top of the six-person pack. This contest is a jumble; in the latest poll, all three were tied at 24%. And all three have about $200K for the campaign’s final weeks. It should be a photo finish.