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GOP reveals midterm blueprint
By Alex Isenstadt
Politico
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41143.html
The GOP blueprint for winning control of the House is rapidly coming into focus, with the National Republican Congressional Committee readying a $22 million TV ad blitz aimed at a handful of powerful, long-serving incumbents and several dozen of the most junior members of the Democratic majority.
POLITICO has learned that the Republican campaign arm will invest in 40 districts around the nation in its first wave of television commercial reservations – a target list that ranges from powerful veterans such as Budget Committee Chairman Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.) and Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), an Appropriations Committee cardinal, to endangered freshmen legislators including Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), and Rep. Harry Teague (D-N.M.).
The reservations, which were confirmed to POLITICO by several senior party officials familiar with the buy, provide the clearest snapshot yet of the GOP’s strategy for erasing the 39-seat Democratic advantage in the House-an approach that is contingent on picking off a large number of Democrats elected in 2006 and 2008, in addition to a handful of longtime incumbents.
While Democrats have reserved ad time in 60 races to date, the vast majority of those reservations-54 of them-are designed to protect vulnerable incumbents. Republicans, on the other hand, are investing in an almost entirely offensive effort. Of the 40 seats covered in the NRCC buy, 39 are currently held by Democrats.
The bulk of the Democrats in the crosshairs are vulnerable first-term legislators sitting in Republican-oriented seats. Many are clustered in the South, including Rep. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.), Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.), Rep. Travis Childers (D-Miss.), Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) and Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.).
Republicans are also looking toward a handful of Republican-leaning seats that have been left vacant by Democratic retirements. Among them: Arkansas’s 1st District, Indiana’s 8th District, Kansas’s 3rd District, and Tennessee’s 8th District.
A number of seasoned Capitol Hill veterans are being singled out for rough treatment. Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Ky.), Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas), Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Edwards, and Spratt – all of whom face their most difficult reelection campaigns in years – are on the GOP fall hit list.
In a nod to the perilous election environment, Republicans are also probing for fresh pickup opportunities in Republican-friendly districts that until recently looked to be locked down by savvy Democrats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.), Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), and Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.)- all of whom hold wide cash on hand advantages over their opponents and won by comfortable margins in 2008-will have ads run against them.
Despite the NRCC’s muscle-flexing, money remains a major obstacle in their pursuit of a majority. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee revealed two weeks ago that it was reserving over $49 million in ad time – much of it to defend imperiled incumbents – a firewall that reflected the committee’s ability to use its financial strength to protect its majority. The DCCC has $34 million in the bank, doubling the NRCC’s $17 million.
Cash-flush Democrats have used their deep pockets to invest in several competitive seats where national Republicans have yet to signal their intention to compete aggressively. The NRCC has so far bypassed a handful of open or otherwise reasonably competitive seats that offer some promise for GOP gains.
Republican officials declined to specify when they would begin running their ads, noting that those decisions were still being made. The DCCC’s reservations encompass the final two weeks of the campaign.
Notably, the NRCC has yet to announce plans to defend several imperiled GOP incumbents who rank high on Democratic target lists. Rep. Charles Djou (R-Hawaii), Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.)-the two incumbents widely considered to be the most endangered Republicans-were left off the NRCC roster. Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), who is thought to be in better shape, was also not included.
The lone Republican-held open seat among the initial NRCC ad reservations is Illinois’s 10th District, a Democratic-leaning suburban Chicago seat vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running for Senate.
One senior Republican official stressed that the ad reservations were only tentative and could change in the weeks to come.
“Consider this is a down payment on what is to come in the fall,” said the official. “The playing field is expanding and we plan to be on offense as we continue to close the financial gap in the final weeks.”
Here are the full list of districts the NRCC plans to air ads in: Alabama’s 2nd District, Arkansas’s 1st District, California’s 11th District, Colorado’s 4th District, Florida’s 2nd District, Florida’s 8th District, Florida’s 24th District, Georgia’s 8th District, Illinois’s 10th District, Illinois’s 11th District, Indiana’s 2nd District, Indiana’s 8th District, Indiana’s 9th District, Kansas’s 3rd District, Kentucky’s 6th District, Maryland’s 1st District, Michigan’s 1st District, Michigan’s 7th District, Mississippi’s 1st District, New Hampshire’s 1st District, Nevada’s 3rd District, New Mexico’s 2nd District, New York’s 20th District, New York’s 24th District, North Dakota At-Large, Ohio’s 1st District, Ohio’s 15th District, Ohio’s 16th District, Pennsylvania’s 3rd District, Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Pennsylvania’s 11th District, South Carolina’s 5th District, South Dakota At-Large, Tennessee’s 8th District, Texas’s 17th District, Texas’s 23rd District, Virginia’s 2nd District, Virginia’s 5th District, and West Virginia’s 1st District, Wisconsin’s 7th District.
